[Spider-Dan]

Doesn't matter. Landing 6/6 Barrage hits and 6/6 WS hits uses the same calculation (because every hit must land, either way). It's landing 5/6 Barrage hits that's different than 5/6 WS hits.

[pathwriter]

I'll take your word on it. Probability has always been one of my weak points mathematically.

[Lambtor]

Aleera, on 06 November 2009 - 12:36 PM, said:

I should probably mention I don't have archery or marksmanship merited because I have sword/polearm/scythe merited instead...

this is the answer to your question.


i've never seen any data that suggests each successive hit of barrage DOESN'T have some increasing accuracy penalty connected to it.

[TresDuendes]

i've also never seen any data that suggests standing in gum drop lane will make you dance like a salt shaker either but if you try real hard i'm sure you could make a connection and get people to believe it

[Lambtor]

do you seriously believe you can get a 69% chance of landing a 7 shot barrage on almost any mob worth a damn in the game? i'm not reaching for my wallet to buy that.

[pathwriter]

The number derives from capped accuracy. And in situations where my accuracy is doing fine, I tend to land most or all of my Barrage shots exactly as one would expect. And then sometimes I miss the first shot and shout for a little while. It happens.

[evilpaul]

pathwriter, on 11 November 2009 - 12:20 PM, said:

I'll take your word on it. Probability has always been one of my weak points mathematically.

Don't because it's wrong. You whiff on Asuran Fists frequently? I mean seriously, have you ever whiffed on Asuran outside of maybe being Flashed? You need to land the first hit on a Barrage to attempt to land the second. Miss the first, and you "missed" the rest. Multi-hit WS will attempt to land all their hits and any Double/Triple Attack procs regardless. It's not even remotely the same math.

[Spider-Dan]

evilpaul, on 13 November 2009 - 12:35 AM, said:

Don't because it's wrong. You whiff on Asuran Fists frequently? I mean seriously, have you ever whiffed on Asuran outside of maybe being Flashed? You need to land the first hit on a Barrage to attempt to land the second. Miss the first, and you "missed" the rest. Multi-hit WS will attempt to land all their hits and any Double/Triple Attack procs regardless. It's not even remotely the same math.

You're right... unless you actually read what I said. Then you're completely wrong.

The math for landing 5/8 Barrage is completely different than the math for landing 5/8 Asuran. But that's not what we're talking about.

The math for landing 8/8 Barrage and 8/8 Asuran is exactly the same: you must land EVERY HIT or you have failed. It DOESN'T MATTER that Barrage's accuracy is sequentially dependent because if you land 7/8 Asuran (missing, say, the sixth hit) you have failed, exactly as if you missed the second shot of Barrage. Talk of whiffing full Asurans is COMPLETELY irrelevant and only serves to highlight the fact that you don't understand WTF you are talking about.

Summary for the illiterate:

If you miss ANY ONE of the hits in Barrage, you have failed to land 8/8 hits.
If you miss ANY ONE of the hits in Asuran, you have failed to land 8/8 hits.
The probability of landing 8/8 hits on either (with capped accuracy) is, therefore, exactly the same.

[Taint]

Spider-Dan, on 13 November 2009 - 07:01 PM, said:

You're right... unless you actually read what I said. Then you're completely wrong.

The math for landing 5/8 Barrage is completely different than the math for landing 5/8 Asuran. But that's not what we're talking about.

The math for landing 8/8 Barrage and 8/8 Asuran is exactly the same: you must land EVERY HIT or you have failed. It DOESN'T MATTER that Barrage's accuracy is sequentially dependent because if you land 7/8 Asuran (missing, say, the sixth hit) you have failed, exactly as if you missed the second shot of Barrage. Talk of whiffing full Asurans is COMPLETELY irrelevant and only serves to highlight the fact that you don't understand WTF you are talking about.

Summary for the illiterate:

If you miss ANY ONE of the hits in Barrage, you have failed to land 8/8 hits.
If you miss ANY ONE of the hits in Asuran, you have failed to land 8/8 hits.
The probability of landing 8/8 hits on either (with capped accuracy) is, therefore, exactly the same.

No...just no. I am stupider now for reading that nonsense.

[Spider-Dan]

When did the RNG forum get invaded by idiots?

To all the people who are bad at math:

Please explain how landing 8 consecutive hits takes a completely different mathematical calculation than landing 8 consecutive hits.

I eagerly await your response.

[Taint]

Spider-Dan, on 14 November 2009 - 12:54 PM, said:

When did the RNG forum get invaded by idiots?

To all the people who are bad at math:

Please explain how landing 8 consecutive hits takes a completely different mathematical calculation than landing 8 consecutive hits.

I eagerly await your response.

The problem is your comparison, if you miss the first hit of asuran you continue to swing 7 times, if you miss the first hit of barrage you turn is over. They are too different equations. Even at capped ACC your chance of missing a hit is 1 in 20. At 95% max acc barrage is going to be effected more by a miss then asuran.

[Spider-Dan]

Taint, on 14 November 2009 - 02:04 PM, said:

The problem is your comparison, if you miss the first hit of asuran you continue to swing 7 times, if you miss the first hit of barrage you turn is over.

If you miss the first hit of Asuran then YOUR TURN IS OVER when it comes to LANDING ALL 8 HITS. Once you miss any hit on Asuran, you are no longer capable of landing all 8 hits.

Thanks for helping prove my point.

[Taint]

Spider-Dan, on 14 November 2009 - 02:17 PM, said:

If you miss the first hit of Asuran then YOUR TURN IS OVER when it comes to LANDING ALL 8 HITS. Once you miss any hit on Asuran, you are no longer capable of landing all 8 hits.

Thanks for helping prove my point.

Your point has zero usefullness and your comparison is a stretch at best. There is no WS that acts like barrage and the hit miss equations are calulated differently and as long as capped ACC is 95% the landing all hits BS is a pipe dream.

[Spider-Dan]

Again, I await your explanation for how landing 8 consecutive hits is a "pipe dream" compared to... landing 8 consecutive hits.

I suspect that the real lesson to be learned here is that you drastically overestimate the probability of landing all the hits of Asuran.

[Taint]

Spider-Dan, on 14 November 2009 - 03:20 PM, said:

Again, I await your explanation for how landing 8 consecutive hits is a "pipe dream" compared to... landing 8 consecutive hits.

I suspect that the real lesson to be learned here is that you drastically overestimate the probability of landing all the hits of Asuran.

Just because the resulting answer is the same does not mean the equation to get there is. I'm not sure why that is so hard for you to understand.

[Spider-Dan]

So again, let's talk about the difference:

To land an 8-hit Asuran, you must connect with every hit. As soon as you miss one hit, it is impossible to land 8 hits on that attempt. In "contrast," to land 8/8 Barrage, you must connect with every hit. As soon as you miss one hit, it is impossible to land 8 hits on that attempt.

Let me ask you a simple question: which of the following qualify as landing all 8 hits?

a) 2-hit Barrage (missed hit #3)
b) 7-hit Asuran (missed hit #8)
c) 4-hit Barrage (missed hit #5)
d) 6-hit Asuran (missed hits #2, #5)
e) 7-hit Barrage (missed hit #8)
f) 7-hit Asuran (missed hit #1)

Take your time.

[Taint]

Spider-Dan, on 14 November 2009 - 04:12 PM, said:

So again, let's talk about the difference:

To land an 8-hit Asuran, you must connect with every hit. As soon as you miss one hit, it is impossible to land 8 hits on that attempt. In "contrast," to land 8/8 Barrage, you must connect with every hit. As soon as you miss one hit, it is impossible to land 8 hits on that attempt.

Let me ask you a simple question: which of the following qualify as landing all 8 hits?

a) 2-hit Barrage (missed hit #3)
b) 7-hit Asuran (missed hit #8)
c) 4-hit Barrage (missed hit #5)
d) 6-hit Asuran (missed hits #2, #5)
e) 7-hit Barrage (missed hit #8)
f) 7-hit Asuran (missed hit #1)

Take your time.

I understand your pointless point and already stated its uselessness. It helps no one and the same point could be made using an infinite number of situations with the same useless results. An irrelevant argument is just that. But yes you are right landing 8 hits is the same as landing 8 hits, the difference is how its calculated to get there. How about you explain why anyone would care about your "point"??

[Aleera]

Spider-Dan, on 14 November 2009 - 04:12 PM, said:

So again, let's talk about the difference:

To land an 8-hit Asuran, you must connect with every hit. As soon as you miss one hit, it is impossible to land 8 hits on that attempt. In "contrast," to land 8/8 Barrage, you must connect with every hit. As soon as you miss one hit, it is impossible to land 8 hits on that attempt.

Let me ask you a simple question: which of the following qualify as landing all 8 hits?

a) 2-hit Barrage (missed hit #3)
b) 7-hit Asuran (missed hit #8)
c) 4-hit Barrage (missed hit #5)
d) 6-hit Asuran (missed hits #2, #5)
e) 7-hit Barrage (missed hit #8)
f) 7-hit Asuran (missed hit #1)

Take your time.

I understand the point you're trying to make but I think Taint is right here.. Landing 8/8 hits on asuran isn't exactly the same as barrage, because of the circumstances of barrage.

If you miss hit 2 of asuran, you can still achieve 7/8 hits of asuran. If you miss hit 2 of barrage, you only get 1/8 from it. If you miss hit 4 of asuran, you can still get 7/8 for asuran, but only 3/8 for barrage, etc. Barrage and asuran can't really be compared the way you're trying to explain it. Asuran at best if you miss one or two hits from it, can get more damage out than if barrage missed a hit, especially early on. Either way, you don't want anything less than 8/8 on either, so stacking acc out your ass is the only way to avoid this.

[Spider-Dan]

Aleera, on 14 November 2009 - 09:39 PM, said:

If you miss hit 2 of asuran, you can still achieve 7/8 hits of asuran.

...which still means that you FAILED at landing all 8 hits, which is the only thing that we're talking about!

When I say that 8/8 Barrage and 8/8 Asuran have the same probability, I am NOT commenting on the likeliness of other results that are NOT 8/8. Is 7/8 Asuran more likely than 7/8 Barrage? Sure, but it's still not 8/8, so it doesn't count.

The only thing being argued here is whether or not 8/8 Asuran is more likely than 8/8 Barrage. It is not. And the only people who think that it is:

a) are bad at math, and
b) sorely overestimate the likeliness of 8/8 Asuran

Now if you want to talk about whether Asuran Fists is more accurate/more damaging/better than Barrage in general, then fine, I'm perfectly happy to have that discussion. But that's NOT what is being discussed right now. What is being discussed is strictly whether-or-not-8-hit-Asuran-is-more-likely-than-8-hit-Barrage. And if you think it is (at capped accuracy); you're simply wrong. Period.

[pathwriter]

Ok, so moving past the argument here, what would be the relevant equation for calculating the dependent probabilities of landing X hits of Barrage?