[Jaybb]

Sephie, on 11 November 2009 - 07:25 AM, said:

actually, they get exponentially less worse. like say you cap accuracy on barrage, that's 5% chance of missing the first hit. it would be a like...9.9% chance of missing one of the first 2 hits, like...14% chance of missing one of the first 3, etcetera

well, i guess you could say it's exponentially worse, because it technically follows an exponential trend that goes steadily downward the more hits there are in multihit ws/barrage, but it's not going like 5 11 18, it's going 5 10 14. it's approximately 69% chance of hitting a 7-hit barrage (same figure for dancing edge /nin) and i hit that pretty frequently on my thf, and there's no way i have capped acc during WS

This is the right equation for barrage. For every shot you would deduct 5% from the chance that you would hit all of the shots. Ignore the whole melee WS thing.

An equation would look something like

100 * .95^x

where X is the number of shots in your barrage.


Now if there are 7 shots fired at 95% acc you have a 69% chance to hit them all. Now you may be wondering what your chances are to land 0 1 2 3 4 5 or 6 shots. There is a approximately a 5% chance to miss on each of those shots meaning you have a

5% chance to hit 0 shots
4.75% chance to hit 1 shot
4.5% chance to hit 2 shots
4.3% chance to hit 3 shots
4.1% chance to hit 4 shots
3.8% chance to hit 5 shots
3.7% chance to hit 6 shots
and a 69.83% chance to hit all 7 shots


Again, I'm tired so sorry if this makes no sense but I'm pretty sure those number are close enough it makes no difference.

[Aleera]

Spider-Dan, on 15 November 2009 - 02:02 AM, said:

...which still means that you FAILED at landing all 8 hits, which is the only thing that we're talking about!

When I say that 8/8 Barrage and 8/8 Asuran have the same probability, I am NOT commenting on the likeliness of other results that are NOT 8/8. Is 7/8 Asuran more likely than 7/8 Barrage? Sure, but it's still not 8/8, so it doesn't count.

The only thing being argued here is whether or not 8/8 Asuran is more likely than 8/8 Barrage. It is not. And the only people who think that it is:

a) are bad at math, and
b) sorely overestimate the likeliness of 8/8 Asuran

Now if you want to talk about whether Asuran Fists is more accurate/more damaging/better than Barrage in general, then fine, I'm perfectly happy to have that discussion. But that's NOT what is being discussed right now. What is being discussed is strictly whether-or-not-8-hit-Asuran-is-more-likely-than-8-hit-Barrage. And if you think it is (at capped accuracy); you're simply wrong. Period.

Aleera, on 14 November 2009 - 10:39 PM, said:

I understand the point you're trying to make but I think Taint is right here.. Landing 8/8 hits on asuran isn't exactly the same as barrage, because of the circumstances of barrage.

If you miss hit 2 of asuran, you can still achieve 7/8 hits of asuran. If you miss hit 2 of barrage, you only get 1/8 from it. If you miss hit 4 of asuran, you can still get 7/8 for asuran, but only 3/8 for barrage, etc. Barrage and asuran can't really be compared the way you're trying to explain it. Asuran at best if you miss one or two hits from it, can get more damage out than if barrage missed a hit, especially early on. Either way, you don't want anything less than 8/8 on either, so stacking acc out your ass is the only way to avoid this.

Funny, because I'm agreeing with you on that, which is the point you're making. So no need to continue arguing when I'm just telling you the comparison between WS and barrage is useless, just because they're both 8 hit.



And moving on..

Jaybb, on 15 November 2009 - 03:32 AM, said:

This is the right equation for barrage. For every shot you would deduct 5% from the chance that you would hit all of the shots. Ignore the whole melee WS thing.

An equation would look something like

100 * .95^x

where X is the number of shots in your barrage.


Now if there are 7 shots fired at 95% acc you have a 69% chance to hit them all. Now you may be wondering what your chances are to land 0 1 2 3 4 5 or 6 shots. There is a approximately a 5% chance to miss on each of those shots meaning you have a

5% chance to hit 0 shots
4.75% chance to hit 1 shot
4.5% chance to hit 2 shots
4.3% chance to hit 3 shots
4.1% chance to hit 4 shots
3.8% chance to hit 5 shots
3.7% chance to hit 6 shots
and a 69.83% chance to hit all 7 shots


Again, I'm tired so sorry if this makes no sense but I'm pretty sure those number are close enough it makes no difference.

So that's for 7/7, what about 8? 65.6%? Not much difference between 7 and 8, so I guess It'd be worth it for that extra shot. I've been debating this and I think I might go through with it, I'm going to take out my 4/8 scythe and may take out 4/8 sword to go 8/8 archery on RNG, since I don't use BLU as often (only to cannonball stuff anyways.) Just a matter of hauling ass through the ASA missions now and getting the rest of my coins for the hands. Still need to redo ACP for my body, too.. c.c

[Greeber]

So, has anyone figured out if u need to keep these equiped for the extra shot or can u just pop them on?

[pathwriter]

Testing done with Hunter's Bracers +1 show that they (the Bracers) need to be equipped at the time you fire your Barrage shot. There's no reason this should act any differently.

[evilpaul]

Spider-Dan, on 14 November 2009 - 03:17 PM, said:

If you miss the first hit of Asuran then YOUR TURN IS OVER when it comes to LANDING ALL 8 HITS. Once you miss any hit on Asuran, you are no longer capable of landing all 8 hits.

Thanks for helping prove my point.

You're fucking retarded.

What's worse, you're so fucking retarded you don't even know it.

You always take 8 swings with Asuran Fists. Miss the first hit? You still swing 7 more.

You do not always take every shot of a Barrage. Miss the first hit? Tough shit, you get no more.

The math is completely fucking different you mouth breathing imbecile.

[pathwriter]

No, it isn't, but having had it explained repeatedly apparently has yet to penetrate.

[evilpaul]

With capped accuracy:

5% of Barrages do 0 damage.

0.00000000390625% of Asuran Fists do 0 damage.

Landing 8 consecutive hits with capped accuracy on AF or Barrage is the same odds? Yes, but it's slighlty fucking irrelevant seeing as the two work differently.

0% damage from missing the first hit of Barrage.

~87.5% damage from missing the first hit of Asuran Fists.

Why that's practically the same thing! Clearly, what's important is the probability of landing all 8 and only all 8 consecutive hits! Just because the consequences are radically different doesn't matter, what's important is the probability of landing all hits!

Some useful math would be something like "Under what circumstances will getting Barrage+1 & Racc+7 as augments for use with Barrage outperform Ratt/Racc+7 when compared to the other available alternatives for that slot for TPing/possibly WSing?

[pathwriter]

evilpaul, on 17 November 2009 - 05:52 PM, said:

Landing 8 consecutive hits with capped accuracy on AF or Barrage is the same odds? Yes

That's all. You got the point and now you're arguing the same nonsense that Taint was arguing, which was not what Spider-Dan had been arguing. Being deliberately illiterate does not improve your arguing position.

[evilpaul]

As far as I can tell you and your man crush pal Spider Dan have no point.

You've got a ~66% chance to land 8 consecutive hits with capped accuracy...

And?

Is there a fucking point in there somewhere?

You're also 1,280,000,000 times more likely to do 0 damage with Barrage.

But hey, stick your head up Spider Dan's ass and have a nice day!

[pathwriter]

Apparently the point is so self-evident that it escapes you? But continue with the pointless flaming that not only adds nothing to the discussion but was also covered much more competently by Taint several days ago.

[evilpaul]

Yes, it must have been purely because you say it was.

Unfortunately, you're full of shit. Presumably from Spider Dan's ass.

You may be familiar with the little detail that Barrage works differently than Asuran Fists, right? That "little" sequential thing, that you and Spider Dan handwave away because only ideal circumstances count in the real world apparently, happens to make its damage with capped accuracy much more variable than Asuran with capped acc. If you bothered to look at the probabilities that were posted you might know that.

So, to sum up you (and Spider Dan) are retarded because:

1) You're only concerned with ideal circumstances

2) You ignore the impact of worst case scenarios

3) You ignore the impact of opportunity cost

[pathwriter]

Let's try this one more time:

There's a 66% chance of landing all 8 strikes of a fully buffed Barrage under ideal circumstances. What does this tell us? It tells us that even when conditions are perfect, 1/3 of the time, you're not benefiting from having either Hunter's Bracers +1 or Desultor Tassets on. When we move away from the perfect situation, the likelihood of zero benefit from Barrage +1 increases substantially. What is the conclusion? That adding Barrage +1 to Desultor Tassets is unlikely to be a meaningfully helpful augment.

The comparison to Asuran Fists was purely for demonstration's sake. It should be noted that a Monk can fire off Asuran Fists every ~30 seconds, though, whereas Barrage is stuck at 5 minutes no matter what you do, further devaluing Barrage +1.

Sinking in yet?

[Pluelf]

Wow, the amount of fail on this thread is epic. He explained the all hits thing like 20 times, and there's still people who don't get it.

I blame the American school system.

[Spider-Dan]

evilpaul, on 17 November 2009 - 02:52 PM, said:

With capped accuracy:

5% of Barrages do 0 damage.

0.00000000390625% of Asuran Fists do 0 damage.

Landing 8 consecutive hits with capped accuracy on AF or Barrage is the same odds? Yes, but it's slighlty fucking irrelevant seeing as the two work differently.

0% damage from missing the first hit of Barrage.

~87.5% damage from missing the first hit of Asuran Fists.

Why that's practically the same thing! Clearly, what's important is the probability of landing all 8 and only all 8 consecutive hits! Just because the consequences are radically different doesn't matter, what's important is the probability of landing all hits!

The point that you repeatedly and vigorously fail to grasp is that NONE of what you cited has ANYTHING to do with 7-hit vs. 8-hit Barrage!

The argument being made against Barrage augment is that "you will probably never land all the hits anyway and you need to land all the hits in order to see any improvement." Another poster mentioned that full-hit Barrage is no less likely than landing full hits on a (equivalent hit) WS, and that he lands all the hits of his WS all the time. Then a bunch of people with poor math skills disagree, I explain why they are wrong, and they demonstrate that their reading comprehension is even worse than their math skills.

No one is arguing that Asuran Fists is more likely to land hits than Barrage. The ENTIRE POINT of this discussion is WHETHER OR NOT 8-hit Barrage is worth upgrading to. And the statement that 8-hit Barrage is NO LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR than 8-hit Asuran is quite f*cking relevant to the discussion (if you believe that 8-hit Asurans are not unacceptably infrequent).

Your entire post has literally nothing to do with 7-hit vs. 8-hit Barrage, instead choosing to explore "which is more likely to land a higher number of hits on average, Asuran Fists or Barrage?" In other words, you have managed to thoroughly answer a question that literally everyone in this thread already knew the answer to, no one cares about, and has no relevance whatsoever to the discussion at hand. Congratulations!

[TresDuendes]

i dont know man i land 8/8 asuran on my mnk a lot more often than i land 7/7 barrage

[DoA]

Apparently I need to take more time to pass knowledge on to people.

Quote

95% = [0.95^8] = .66342 = 66%

This is my math, I hope we can all see and understand the math behind capped Acc for both the ability and ws.

Quote

This is where knowing Pascal's Triangle comes in handy. Note that this is for independent occurances. (In short, Asuran Fists or other multi hit WS) Scroll down to the very bottom for the tl;dr synopsis.

1
1 2 1
1 3 3 1
1 4 6 4 1
1 5 10 10 5 1
1 6 15 20 15 6 1
1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1
1 8 28 56 70 56 28 8 1

Basically, if you have 8 occurances (shots or swings) you have 2 outcomes per occurance. Hit or miss. However, you can either hit 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 times. There is only one possible combination where all 8 hit and when all miss. There are 8 possible combinations for 7 hits or 1 hit. 28 combinations for 6 hits or 2 hits. 56 combinations for 5 or 3 hits. And lastly there are 70 different combinations for 4 hits.

If you have a 90% hit rate (used for ease of calculations), the formula for determining all possible outcomes is given by:

8 hits: [(0.9)^8 x (0.1)^0]1 = [(0.43)x(1)]1 = 43% chance for 8 hits
7 hits: [(0.9)^7 x (0.1)^1]8 = [(0.478) x (0.1)]8 = 38.2% chance for 7 hits
.
.
.
0 hits: [(0.9)^0 x (0.1)^8]1 = [(1) x (0.00000001)]1 = 0.000001% chance of full miss.


Generic formula, where n is number of hits, m is number of misses, y is Hit rate, z is Miss rate, and P is pascals number for the given number of occurences:

n hits: {[(y)^n x (z)^m]P}100 = % chance of n hits

Now lets say you want to know about Barrage, then the math is slightly different.

Again a 90% hit rate:

8 hits: [(0.9)^8 x (0.1)^0] = [(0.43)x(1)]1 = 43% chance of all 8 hits landing
7 hits: [(0.9)^7 x (0.1)^1] = [(0.478) x (0.1)] = 4.78% chance for 7 hits
6 hits: [(0.9)^6 x (0.1)^1] = [(0.531) x (0.1)] = 5.31% chance of 6 hits
.
.
.
0 hits: [(0.9)^0 x (0.1)^1] = [(1) x (0.1)] = 10% chance of 0 hits.

Generic formula for Barrage, where n is number of hits, m is number of misses, y is Hit rate, z is Miss rate, and P is pascals number for the given number of occurences:

n hits: [(y)^n x (z)^m]100 = % chance of n hits

Note that m can only equal 0 or 1 (only 0 or 1 miss can occur in barrage). As such, you'll always have the best chance of landing all 8 hits, followed by 0 hits, then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. (Assuming hit rate is high enough.)

Keep in mind the math I've done above is for an 8 hit barrage (currently unobtainable). However, the generic formula can still be used if you want to calculate your own hit rates.

Courtesy of Cyth, couldn't remember the triangle myself.

[Draxk]

WELL after everyone pretty much finished arguing basically got this out of it.

8/8 hits on asuran and barrage is basically the same.
but....
maximum number of hit output is different meaning....

asuran is more likely to get more hits then barrage because barrage stops when u miss a shot. Asuran keeps going till you go through all hits.

example 7/8 shots asuran is more likely to hit can afford to miss any 1 of the 8 shots
7/8 shots barrage can't miss any but the last shot



Figured you would want an outside persons point of view

[Snprphnx]

screw the math. i wanna see higher dmg pics from an 8 hit to plz the epeens

[Virginia]

Snprphnx, on 26 November 2009 - 09:48 AM, said:

screw the math. i wanna see higher dmg pics from an 8 hit to plz the epeens

i get all this...i'm surprised that my brain still understands at least some higher math from over 10 years ago, and i appreciate people going through all the fuss.
bigger question though is, why would i do this for a game? ._.

[pathwriter]

"Should" is a rather subjective word in this case. In pretty much any game where a multiplicity of stats are available, this kind of question needs to be approached. Unless we're talking about a rather old RPG, something like Dragon Quest, where the only real stats are weapon damage and armor defense, there's pretty much always going to be a certain amount of debate. Whether you care or not is perhaps more important.